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December 29, 2024
WHAT WOULD WARREN BUFFET DO?: From time to time, some of you have told me of your nervousness caused by actions by Warren Buffett. If he is selling, or holding on to cash, reports are circulated that he must smell a crash. What does he know that we don't? Well, in late December, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway spent over half a billion dollars buying stocks. They bought about $400 million of Occidental Petroleum and over $100 million on Sirius XM. Both of these companies have performed poorly this year. Based on his longstanding philosophy, we don't follow his trades as predictors of recessions or rallies. He likes to find good companies selling at good prices, and he holds them.
LOWER VOLUME TRADING TRENDS HIGHER: Less stock trading occurs this time of the year, but the markets still move, and sometimes in exaggerated fashion. Market movements were not extensive or exaggerated this week, but volume was light. Markets spiked upward on Monday, but ended the week with a slide in tech stocks which lead to a general Friday slump. The week remained slightly positive.
LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.
COME BACK TO THE OFFICE: Beginning January 2, 2025, Amazon is requiring all of its 350,000 employees to return to the office five days a week. UPS, Boeing, Disney, Apple, Dell, Chase and Barlcays, among others, have made similar announcements. In September, in a survey conducted by KPMG, 83% of U.S. CEOs expect a full return to the office within the next three years, up from 64% a year earlier. According to a separate survey by Resume.org, the reasons companies are bringing their employees back include improving communication, strengthening company culture, boosting productivity, and fostering collaboration and teamwork. There will be pushback. A recent survey of Amazon professionals shows that 73% were considering quitting because of the five-day mandate.
CONFIDENCE DROPS: The Conference Board measures Americans' confidence in the economy. According to its monthly survey, confidence dropped in December showing less confidence going into 2025 for the overall economic situation. The index has been in the middle range for the past couple of years, but dropped to a more pessimistic reading in the last month. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index measures Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. This contrasts with consumer actions in that retail spending has been increasing of late.
CHINA DOMINATING WORLD CAR SALES: In 2023, nearly one third (32.3%) of all cars sold in the world were produced in China. The U.S. came in second at 11.3% with Japan coming in a close third at 9.6%. India, South Korea, and Germany take the next three spots with Mexico, Spain, Brazil and Thailand rounding out the top ten.
CHRISTMAS IN "WARM" SAVANNAH: All our children have spouses or "significant others," and this was the year for our kids to spend Christmas with them. And so we planned a Christmas trip with my brother and his wife for some place that would likely be warm this time of year, Savannah, Georgia. It was not warm. We had a great time despite the cold. It is a beautiful spot with great architecture and history.
GOD BE WITH YOU SHIRLEY: After my email was completed, we got a phone call. My mother-in-law passed away in her sleep. Shirley Strayer Bonner was 88, and in her last couple of months, she was struggling and bed-ridden. She was mostly blind and deaf at the end, but the last couple of times I saw her, the one thing she was able to communicate clearly was, "I love you," to any of us who would sit with her and hold her hand. Despite failing health for years, she always rallied, and I expected she might do the same this time, but alas, it was her time to go, just two years after her husband, my father-in-law Clete, passed. Shirley was one of the most fun-loving, welcoming people I have ever met. It would take her about ten minutes to turn a total stranger into a life-long friend. She loved her family, her two daughters, six grandchildren, and great grandchildren. I was blessed to be part of that family she loved even though the first encounter I remember with her included her making fun of my driving, and laughing heartily at herself. She was able to make you feel special for the smallest of things. One time when I cleaned out my garage, she looked and described it as though I just won the Nobel Prize. As her life inevitably got smaller in her last years, she drew comfort in reading "Mornings With Jesus," and telling us about the lessons she had learned from it. We are sad to see her go, but relieved that she has moved beyond the pain and frustration she was experiencing.
Have a great week!
Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.
Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®
President
Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC
Direct | Cell | Fax
(610) 628 4545
"Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experience of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, ambition inspired, and success achieved." Helen Keller
“Beloved, I pray that you may prosper in all things and be in health, just as your soul prospers.” III John 2 (KJV)
SOURCES:
CHINA DOMINATING WORLD CAR SALES: https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2023-statistics/
COME BACK TO THE OFFICE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-end-work-home-federal-employees-big-tech-takes-action
WHAT WOULD WARREN BUFFET DO?: https://gritcap.io/p/buffett-bought-the-dip
MAY YOU PROSPER IN 2025: https://onpurpose.substack.com/p/there-is-no-success-without-significance?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=280282&post_id=150677452&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=s86er&triedRedirect=true
CONFIDENCE DROPS: https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-consumers-feel-less-confident-as-economy-concerns-mount-82635510?mod=economy_more_article_pos3 AND https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/american-consumers-feeling-less-confident-in-december-conference-board-says/ar-AA1wnovF
(c) 2024 A.D., Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved
Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
SDG
*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.
*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.
*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.
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