Continued Worries About the Fed...again, and Christmas in Dallas

View this email in your browser


(Keeping you up-to-date since 2006)


If this email was forwarded to you, you can get it emailed directly to you. Just click below.


December 25, 2022

BLAST FROM THE PAST: I was perusing prior issues of this newsletter, and I came across this entry from Christmas Day of 2017. It is a message that always bears reiteration, especially as we begin to think about the new year:

GRATITUDE: Before I get into tax law and investment results, etc., I want to start with gratitude. I went to a funeral for the wife of a friend of many years last week. During the funeral, one of the eulogies was by her former pastor David Mueller who said (this is pretty close to an exact quote). “As I look back on my life [he is in his 70s], and consider what I might have done differently, the one thing that I keep coming back to is that I would have been much more loose lipped in expressing gratitude to others.” And of course he held up the deceased as exhibit ‘A’ of someone he should have thanked more. May we all be more loose lipped with our gratitude in [2023]!

LAST LINES: Can you guess these Christmas movies by their last lines? Answers below:

  1. “I drifted off to sleep, pranging ducks on the wing and getting off spectacular hip shots.”
  2. “Attaboy, Clarence”
  3. “I did it.”
  4. “Kevin! What did you do to my room?”
  5. “Maybe I didn’t do such a wonderful thing after all.”
  6. “If this is their idea of Christmas I got to be there for New Year’s”

ON SECOND THOUGHT: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis always revises its estimate of quarterly economic growth as it continues to analyze data. In its earlier estimate, the BEA estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, grew by 2.9% in the third quarter. Last week, the BEA announced that upon further review, the number was 3.2%.

U.S. CONGRESS PASSES OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL: No new stimulus was included in the new spending bill passed by Congress. The bill raises nondefense, nonemergency spending by 8% and defense spending by 10% (both higher than the rate of inflation). Whether or not you approve of the spending priorities, additional spending on Capitol Hill causes investors to worry that the Fed will feel like it needs to do even more to slow economic activity (more Federal spending increases economic activity) and thus will be even more aggressive.

NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS STILL AT VERY LOW LEVELS: 216,000 Americans filed for new unemployment claims, still a historically low figure. Unfortunately, this report and the upwardly revised GDP figure for the third quarter, along with the Omnibus spending bill passed by the Senate and then the House immediately caused some angst among investors because too strong an economy keeps the Fed aggressive. Markets reacted negatively.

STOCKS END THE WEEK MIXED : In a familiar pattern for the second half of 2022, stocks bounced around. Stock prices came under pressure due largely to healthy economic news (see above), but then recovered at the end. All that probably means is that investors are going to continue to wait and see what becomes of this economy as we move into the months ahead. I think I can make one bold prediction, however. I predict the S&P 500 will end the year in the red.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

THE FIRST HALF OF 2022 WAS THE KILLER: While looking at year-to-date numbers, it is easy to forget this: The S&P 500 is up 2.18% over the last six months.

IT IS TIME TO SET SOME GOALS: You are way more likely to be successful at something if you set a goal ahead of time. Set some financial goals for the year. How much do you want in your savings account this time next year? How much do you want to have saved toward your college fund? How much do you want your debt to be reduced? How much do you want to give to charity? Write it down? Talk it over with your spouse. Develop a plan and some accountability. Your one-year-older self will be very happy with you.


  1. A Christmas Story
  2. It’s a Wonderful Life
  3. National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation
  4. Home Alone
  5. Miracle on 34th Street (1947)
  6. Die Hard

DALLAS?: Two of my three children are married, and this is their year for spending Christmas with the in-laws. So we were down to one child, our youngest. My first thought was, “I have lots of frequent flier miles, let’s spend the weekend in the Bahamas or something.” That was our initial plan, but my son kept hinting that Dallas might be fun too. Dallas? Of course Dallas. The Eagles are playing the Cowboys in Dallas on Christmas Eve. So Merry Christmas Riley; here we are in Dallas on Christmas Eve cheering for the Eagles. It was an exciting game even though it had the wrong outcome.

Have a great week!

Our mission is to help you see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.

Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®
Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax
(610) 628 4545

“Maybe Christmas, the Grinch thought, doesn’t come from a store.” Dr. Seuss

“That’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.” Linus Van Pelt

“Make the most of every opportunity.” Colossians 4:5


(c) 2022 A.D., Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.
*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.
*Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.




Copyright © *|CURRENT_YEAR|* *|LIST:COMPANY|*, All rights reserved.


Our mailing address is:


Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.



    Doug MacGray

  • DATE

    December 26, 2022


Ready to find out how Stonecrop Wealth Advisors can help you?

We’d love to hear about your organization and discuss how our extensive experience advising institutional clients on non-profit investment strategy can help support your mission and objectives.

Related Articles

Advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply any level of skill or training.

To see a copy of our SEC form CRS, Customer Relationship Summary, please click here. To see our Form ADV, including our Part 2 Disclosure Brochure, please click here. To see a copy of our Privacy Policy, please click here.

Information presented on this site is for informational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any product or security. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed here.

The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. When you link to any of the websites provided here, you are leaving this website. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of the information provided at these websites.

© Copyright 2021 Stonecrop Wealth Advisors. All Rights Reserved